How might $880 Billion in Potential Federal Medicaid cuts effect Oregon and Oregonians?

As you may well know, the United States Congress is looking for ways to finance proposed tax cuts in their budget reconciliation bill.

Per the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF), “Medicaid is jointly financed by states and the federal government but administered by states within broad federal rules. Medicaid accounts for a large share of state budgets and can be central to state fiscal decisions. Following years of robust revenue growth, states are now contending with weakening tax revenues, budget shortfalls, and uncertainty in their long-term fiscal outlook, leaving some states with difficult budget decisions.

If these potential cuts come to fruition, states would have to look at cuts within their own budgets. For example, if a state wanted to maintain their Medicaid program at its current levels, they might need to look at cutting other programs liked education, increasing taxes, or a combination of both. KFF indicates that the proposed federal cuts represent approximately 19% of state education per student or 6% of state taxes per resident (varies by state).

If, however, states choose neither of these options, but instead decide to reduce Medicaid spending, that would mean choosing to cover less people, offering less benefits, or paying providers less.

Likely, none of these options will be popular.

Thanks to the Kaiser Family Foundation for this breakdown to illustrate the potential number of enrollees (and share of that group) that would affect in Oregon:

	Seniors & People with Disabilities	Expansion Adults & Other Adults	Children
State	Number	Share	Number	Share	Number	Share
Oregon	50K	30%	191K	25%	229K	71%

You can get data for all states, as well as much more in-depth information from KFF, here.

Stay tuned. We will continue to keep you informed as best we can.